Welsh Poultry Centre

The Future for Poultry Breeds

The History of Animal Breeding

Breeding animals for desirable characteristic goes back as far as agriculture does. However, it really took off, as a science, after 1700. The eighteenth century was a period of incredible innovation in agriculture. Crop yields increased threefold between 1700 and 1850 while at the same time the labour involved in agriculture dropped from 75% of the population to 22%. During this period there was very little imported food into the UK. The increase in production allowed the population to increase from around 6 million to 16 million by 1850. The relative decline in the agricultural workforce allowed the sharp increase in manufacturing workforce and the boom, which we now call the industrial revolution.

It is ironic, looking at it today, that the industrial revolution was allowed because of a sustainable agricultural revolution. This dramatic increase in agricultural output can be attributed to a greater understanding of the role of Nitrogen and the consequent establishment of suitable rotations using nitrogen-fixing clovers. To exploit the greater nitrogen available plant breeders produced crops better able to utilise the increased fertility. At the same time the greater protein available in the clover leys encouraged animal breeders to select animals with greater potential. Although various areas had their own indigenous breeds of cattle, such as the North Devon, the Welsh Black or Aberdeen Angus, this period saw their development.

Robert Bakewell is little known today, but was one of the agricultural improvers of the age. He is probably best remembered for his work with sheep and then cattle. Driven by a desire to maximise profit for his farm he vigorously selected and inbred for certain traits. At the time his methods met with a certain amount of distaste, inbreeding seen as inherently wrong. However, the result was the New Leicester sheep, which were bigger with smaller bones and a greater fleece. Next he turned his attention to the Longhorn cattle. The longhorn were rangy cattle that were not much good as plough oxen but produced reasonable meat and milk. Through breeding in and in, Bakewell produced Longhorn cattle that matured early, had barrel shaped bodies and short legs with a reduction in bone in the carcase.

Although Bakewell will be remembered for his selective breeding he was followed by a host of other landowners and farmers. In 1710 the average carcase weight of a beef animal was 370Ibs by 1795 the average was 550Ibs, with many of the improved breeds exceeding 1000Ibs. The animals were bred with very specific aims in mind, despite a very limited knowledge of genetics.

Initially cattle were bred for ploughing as well as meat and milk. However the horse soon took over this role (incidentally Bakewell was also instrumental in the development of the Shire horse). As well as meat and milk the animals, sheep and cattle, were prized for their fat. This was required in enormous quantities for lighting and for lubrication in the form of Tallow. Steam engines in particular required tallow, as it did not wash away as easily as other lubricants. Right up until the end of the steam engine in the 1950s tallow was required.

With very little knowledge of genetic, working more by instinct, the breeds of the 18^th century had been tailored to the demands of the time; larger, fatter animals that matured earlier.

Poultry breeding

Poultry were also bred for specific purposes. Throughout the eighteen-century poultry meat was regarded as an expensive, seasonal food and poultry were mainly kept for their eggs. Small breeds were developed originally from the seaport of Bantum in Indonesia. These were particularly suitable for providing eggs on sea voyages. Cockfighting, until it was banned in Britain in 1849, saw the development of the aggressive, heavy cockerels and many middle and upper class also kept and bred chickens for showing, which was very popular in Victorian Britain. At a farm level, while chickens were mainly kept for their eggs, it was desirable to have a heavier bird, producing a reasonable carcase at the end of it lay and allowing cockerels to be fattened in the spring/summer months. It was not until the latter half of the 20^th century that poultry became the cheap meat we know today.

Historically, as societies become richer they consumed more meat. In the UK meat consumption increased five fold during the 20^th century with most of this increase in the second half of the century. In the first agricultural revolution of the eighteen-century, production increased and labour decreased because more nitrogen was made available through rotations and better plant and animal selection. The second agricultural revolution also made more nitrogen available, this time in the form of soluble fertilisers, continued the decrease in labour and perfected the selection of plants and animals. To meet the increasing demand for meat the second half of the 20^th century saw the rapid breed development of the omnivores, rather than the ruminants. The graph below shows the increase in meat by sector.

In poultry what we now call the duel breeds, breeds able to produce a reasonable number of eggs and also produce a reasonable carcase, disappeared in favour of the egg layer and the meat bird. The hybrid layer birds can now produce in excess of 320 eggs per lay, but they do this at the expense of their own body weight whereas the meat strains can obtain 2 kgs in 40 days, but will only produce a handful of eggs, (if allowed to grow old enough). Both types of bird require a specialised diet to achieve their potential. The older, duel purpose breeds do still exist but for the last fifty years have been mainly kept for showing. As showing concentrates on the looks of an animal rather than its performance, their ability to produce eggs and meat has declined.

The Economics of Poultry Production

The economics of egg or meat production is extremely tight. The reasons for this have to do with the retail structures that we have established and the fact that they operate in a global market. Lower labour costs and less regulations allow the purchase of poultry meat from Thailand or Brazil at a much lower price than UK production so that now 76% of poultry meat is imported. Egg production is still mainly UK based (you cant freeze an egg), but the small and variable returns have seen the industry concentrate into massive industrial units.

Free Ranging?

Changes in EU regulations in 2012 and public pressure have seen growth in the free-range sector but not a similar growth in birds ranging freely. Group sizes of up to 200 birds will all range, above that the percentage that range declines. In the modern units where many thousands are housed no more than 5-8% can be expected to range. This is to do with group size and hierarchy and also that they don't need to range. Everything that they need is being brought in for them.

The Future for Poultry Breeds

It is estimated that by the year 2050 the planet will need to produce almost twice the food it is producing today to meet the expanding population. For this reason alone it can be expected that the price of animal feeds will increase. The production of animal protein for human consumption from omnivores is inherently inefficient. You first have to produce the animal feed to produce the protein. As we are also omnivores there is direct competition between us and the animal you want to feed. Every year we are producing globally, 77 million tonnes of human consumable protein to feed to animals which return us 55 million tonnes of human consumable protein.

It is also becoming more expensive to produce the animal feed as the cost of oil increases. The explosion of Nitrogen since the Second World War, which has allowed us to produce such cheap animal protein, has been achieved because of relatively cheap oil. Nitrogen production requires 2% of oil production per year. This doesn't sound that bad but it is a figure which is still climbing. Demand in Europe and America has become static over the last five years but demand in China and India, where they continue to subsidise Nitrogen fertiliser, is still climbing. It is also not just the oil required to make the Nitrogen. Plants grown using soluble fertilisers are more lush and more susceptible to pests and disease, consequently we have to use more pesticides and herbicides; these are all oil based. Connected with this are the retail structures that we have established. These depend on moving more and more food further. The average carrot that you buy in a supermarket now will have travelled 2500 miles before it arrives on your plate; again this is oil based. A further cost is the effect of releasing into the environment the carbon that the oil locked up and the carbon from grassland that are now cropped or the rainforests destroyed for grazing.

Although many have now heard of peak oil and hence the inevitable increase in the cost of oil, not many have heard of peak phosphate. Whereas Nitrogen, using oil, can be fixed from the air, phosphates all come from mined sources.

In the First World War Germany had the ability to produce Nitrogen through this process and they had their own mined potash sources.  They didn't, and we still cant, produce phosphates. Because of the effective blockade put in place by the Royal Navy Germany couldn't import phosphates and saw their agricultural production decline to the point of starvation. To counter the problem of declining agricultural production the Germans famously slaughtered a majority of their pigs. They realised that when food was tight you first cut the inefficient ways of producing it, the omnivores.

There is around 30 years of phosphate reserves left on the planet (see article on Phosphate). Now we can probably treat the population estimates with some caution. From Malthus onwards population predictions have been, well wrong, but even then I think it is a fairly safe bet that animal feed costs, just as food in general, are going to continue going up and that meat and eggs from omnivores will go up even more. Poultry used to be a seasonal meat and expensive meat. I believe that it will return to that over the next 10 years.

If this is the case then we need to re think the breeds that we are employing and how they are fed. Along with Organic Centre Wales, the Welsh Poultry Centre has been carrying out trails on cover crops that can contribute food on the range for poultry (see articles on website). We have been using the available meat and layer birds for these trials. Just as they are best suited to a specific ration from a bag, we need to be looking at breeds which would be better suited to ranging and utilising food on the range. We need to be looking for breeds of poultry that would be fit for purpose in a world that will be changing very rapidly.

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About the author

Stephen Merritt is a partner in The Welsh Poultry Centre and an accredited advisor and board member of The Institute of Organic Training and Advice and has spent over 30 years working in sustainable agriculture in developing countries, England and Wales.  In the last 10 years Steve has specialised in free range and organic poultry production and now offers on farm advice and training to this sector.